The Project 80 evaluation flow.
We do not move from opinion to action. We move from opinion to disciplined classification, then to price confirmation.
Model Read
Evaluate starter matchup, handedness-weighted run creation, 2-run lead protection, injuries, price, and market break-even.
Munger Check
Invert the read: What is the obvious mistake? Are we overpaying? Are we fooling ourselves with precision? Is this outside our circle of competence?
Too Hard Gate
When starter uncertainty, bullpen uncertainty, lineup uncertainty, conflicting layers, or unclear best expression are present, the correct answer may be Too Hard.
Bet-Type Routing
Decide where the edge lives: moneyline, F5, over/under, team total, run line, live watch, or pass.
Market Limits
Every Playable needs a limit. Totals need both number and juice. F5 needs price and bullpen implication.
Five-Engine Price Check
DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365. If the market does not confirm the limit, the play is downgraded.
Category rules now required in every card.
O/U rule
Every total must include direction, number limit, juice limit, best confirmed price, and status. Example: Playable Over 8.5 at -115 or better.
F5 rule
Every F5 read must explain what it says about the bullpen: reducing exposure, unclear bullpen edge, or starter edge worth isolating.
Playable rule
If it does not say Playable, it is not official. If the market does not confirm the limit, it is not official.